The Eight Factors of The Natural Rubber Price Fluctuations
The main factors affecting the volatility of the price of natural rubber, can be roughly grouped into the following eight factors:
A. International natural rubber market supply and demand situation and the major producing rubber country export market
Supply of natural rubber in the international market control in the hands of a few countries of Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The use of natural rubber United States, Japan is not the production of natural rubber, demand is entirely dependent on imports, the natural rubber price support are also evident. China is the world's second largest natural rubber importing countries, the impact of the international rubber prices more directly.
B. International market transaction prices
Natural rubber has become a typical tropical commodity futures, and occupy a certain share of futures trading in the Far East and Southeast Asia. At present, futures trading in natural rubber: Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM), Japan Kobe Rubber Exchange (Kobe), RAS Commodity Exchange Singapore, Kuala Lumpur Commodity Exchange (KLCE). Transactions in Tokyo and Singapore, the largest market share, so they can reflect the basic dynamic of the world rubber market quotes.
C.International Natural Rubber Agreement, signed by the Member States of the International Natural Rubber Organization (INRO) plastic city price movements will have a major impact.
D.China's natural rubber production and consumption
The number of China's natural rubber production, the cost is directly related to the price of the domestic rubber City. The same time, changes in domestic natural rubber usage and processing enterprises in the prices of natural rubber is also the price level of natural rubber.
E.China's imports of natural rubber policies and tax rates
Past two years, due to the impact of cross-border trade, false feed processing and smuggling large quantities of rubber, domestic rubber market severely affected countries in the fight against smuggling at the same time, the quota license management on the import of natural rubber. Imports of natural rubber, including: processing section (zero tariffs, October 1, 1999, no quota permit restrictions), double limit (restrict the flow and use, 1997 and 1998 5% tariff adjustment on 1999 10%) and general trade component (2000 tariff of 25%). Processing part and the double limit is known as tariff reductions part of the Customs on imported natural rubber of these two methods to track, monitor its use and the flow of general trade component can enter the circulation market, and able to participate in the futures market delivery. Since January 1, 2000, the country was formally established this project to import natural rubber, "the in-quota rates, such tax rate is a full duty-paid class, the state does not restrict its flow and use do not track, you can enter the circulation market and delivery in the futures market. The import Yan Pianjiao RSS3 quota rates of 12% in-quota rate of 90% and 125%.
F.Synthetic rubber production and application of market conditions, including the upstream products of crude oil for synthetic rubber
Natural rubber and synthetic rubber are substitutes to use in certain products, so when the tight supply of natural rubber price trend up, the amount of synthetic rubber is increased, the market position of the two complementary. In addition, synthetic rubber and petrochemical products, oil prices will affect the price level of the synthetic rubber, synthetic rubber price levels can be transformed into the demand for natural rubber, which can not be ignored.
G. The development of the rubber industry, such as tires and related automotive industry
The main users of natural rubber tires, the tire industry in the boom of a direct impact on the natural rubber market. The auto industry is a large tire, the development of the automotive industry and the state of the automotive industry policy will affect the demand for the tires, and affect the demand for natural rubber.
H.Natural factors: seasonal changes and climate change
The glue generally tilt the incision in the 5-7 years old rubber bark mining, rubber trees are generally collected 25-30 years. The rubber tree can be tapping, but the yield of seasonal variations. The growth of rubber trees need the environment of high temperature and rainfall, annual average temperature of 26-32. C, annual average rainfall of 2000mm above the tropical regions of cultivation, so its origin is located in the north and south latitude 10. C or less, mostly concentrated in Southeast Asia. As the natural rubber trees grown over the years and therefore can not be adjusted in the short term supply, changes in the market cycle is longer.
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