The price of raw material MIBK has skyrocketed, driving up the price of antioxidants
2025-01-03
Since the beginning of this year, the price of methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK) has continued to rise. According to the data, as of February 8, 2023, the price has reached 20,500 yuan/ton (15,200 yuan/ton on December 30 last year), an increase of 35% so far, an increase of 58% year-on-year, close to the price level in 2021. It is also reported that at the end of December 2022, the 50,000 tons/year MIBK unit of Zhenjiang Li Changrong, the largest domestic MIBK producer, was shut down, and the restart time is still uncertain.
At present, the total production capacity of MIBK industry in my country is 135,000 tons, among which Zhenjiang Li Changrong is the largest producer with a market share of 37%. Its suspension of production will seriously affect the supply level and pattern. Due to the mismatch between supply and demand, the price of MIBK has risen rapidly in a short period of time, from about 10,000 yuan/ton in the fourth quarter of 2022 to more than 20,000 yuan/ton at present, and the price has doubled. Industry insiders believe that in the absence of other new production capacity in the industry, the tight supply situation will continue. In addition to China, South Korea, Japan, and South Africa are other major MIBK producers in the world. my country's anti-dumping measures against foreign MIBK will restrict import supply to a certain extent. Against the background of tight domestic self-supply, it is expected to continue the difficult supply of domestic MIBK.
The price of antioxidant 4020 continued to rise sharply amid the continued surge in raw material MIBK, driving the price of 4010NA to continue to rise. After the new year, the antioxidant market ushered in a small climax driven by the upstream, and the tire delivery speed of downstream companies was relatively ideal. With the gradual resumption of production, the transaction volume of antioxidants is expected to gradually increase, while pushing prices to further strengthen.
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