The eight major factors affecting the price fluctuations of natural rubber.

The main factors currently affecting the price fluctuations of natural rubber can be summarized into the following eight factors:

1. The supply and demand situation in the international natural rubber market and the export conditions of major rubber-producing countries.

The supply of natural rubber in the international market is completely controlled by a few countries such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Major consumers of natural rubber, such as the United States and Japan, do not produce natural rubber and rely entirely on imports, which clearly supports the price of natural rubber. China is also the second-largest importer of natural rubber in the world, directly influencing international rubber prices.

2. International market trading conditions.

Natural rubber has become a typical tropical commodity futures variety in the international market, holding a certain share in futures trading in the Far East and Southeast Asia. Currently, the main exchanges engaged in natural rubber futures trading include the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM), the Kobe Rubber Exchange in Japan (KOBE), the Singapore RAS Commodity Exchange, and the Kuala Lumpur Commodity Exchange (KLCE). Among them, Tokyo and Singapore have the greatest influence, as their market share is large enough to reflect the basic dynamics of the global rubber market.

3. The international natural rubber agreements signed by member countries of the International Natural Rubber Organization (INRO) also have a significant impact on rubber market price trends.

4. The production and consumption situation of natural rubber in China.

The quantity and cost of natural rubber production in China are directly related to domestic rubber market prices. At the same time, changes in domestic natural rubber usage and the acceptance capacity of processing enterprises for natural rubber prices also affect the price level of natural rubber.

5. China's import policies and tax rates for natural rubber.

In recent years, due to the impact of border trade, fake processing of imported materials, and a large amount of smuggled rubber, the domestic rubber market has been severely affected. Therefore, while cracking down on smuggling, the state has implemented quota license management for imported natural rubber. Imported natural rubber includes: processing with imported materials (zero tariff, starting from October 1, 1999, not subject to quota license restrictions), dual-limit parts (restricted flow and use, with tariffs of 5% in 1997 and 1998, adjusted to 10% in 1999), and general trade parts (tariff of 25% before 2000). The processing with imported materials and dual-limit parts are referred to as the duty-reduced parts, and customs track and supervise the use and flow of natural rubber imported through these two methods. Only the general trade part can enter the circulation market and participate in futures market delivery. From January 1, 2000, the state officially established the "quota-in tax rate" for imported natural rubber. This tax rate is a full tax rate, and the state does not restrict its flow and use, nor does it track it, allowing it to enter the circulation market and participate in futures market delivery. Among them, the quota-in tax rate for imported RSS3 rubber is 12%, while the out-of-quota tax rates are 90% and 125%.

6. The production and application situation of synthetic rubber, including the market situation of upstream products such as crude oil.

Natural rubber and synthetic rubber can be used interchangeably for certain products. Therefore, when the supply of natural rubber is tight or prices are rising, the usage of synthetic rubber will increase, indicating a complementary market position between the two. Additionally, since synthetic rubber is a petrochemical product, oil prices will affect the price level of synthetic rubber, and changes in synthetic rubber prices will in turn affect the demand for natural rubber, which should not be overlooked.

7. The development of major rubber-using industries, such as the tire and related automotive industries.

The main users of natural rubber are tires, and the prosperity of the tire industry directly affects the natural rubber market. The automotive industry is a major consumer of tires; therefore, the development of the automotive industry and national policies towards the automotive industry will influence tire demand and, consequently, the demand for natural rubber.

8. Natural factors: seasonal changes and climate variations.

Rubber latex is generally harvested from the inclined cuts on the bark of rubber trees aged 5-7 years, and rubber trees can be tapped for 25-30 years. Rubber trees can be tapped year-round, but their yield varies seasonally. Rubber trees require a high-temperature, rainy environment, cultivated in tropical regions with an average annual temperature between 26-32°C and annual rainfall exceeding 2000mm, thus their distribution is within 10°C of the equator, mostly concentrated in Southeast Asia. Since natural rubber comes from perennial trees, supply cannot be adjusted in the short term, leading to longer market change cycles.